Alice Parry

Analysing clinical trials for treatments of Malaria

A new generation of antimalarial drugs (ACTs) are being deployed to replace older, ineffective drugs. These drugs are currently investigated for effectiveness and safety in clinical trials. In such trials, the parasite count is determined by taking blood samples pre-treatment and on several predefined follow-up days. At present there exist a wide variety of different methods to analyse the results of Malaria trials on a per-human basis and no agreement exists which method is preferable despite strong recommendations by WHO. Moreover, through examination of the genetics of the infections it is possible to estimate the number of genetically different infections (clones) allowing evaluations on a per-clone rather than per-individual basis. The objective of this project is therefore to evaluate existing methods for analysing Malaria trial data and to improve on existing methods in the light of high drop-out rates, imprecision in detecting infections and uncertainty in genotyping. The developed approaches will be evaluated on simulated and real trial data.

Alice Parry
The MPS Research Unit
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Fylde College; Lancaster University Lancaster, Lancashire LA1 4YF

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